Halfway Through The Chase: Championship Breakdown
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Halfway through the Chase…my new championship breakdown.
1. Jimmie Johnson
I’d have to be stupid not to say Jimmie isn’t the best guy so far in the Chase.
2. Denny Hamlin
Denny said that he’s going to wait until the last 3 races to go all out and win the title. The way this is shapin’ up, by that time Denny will be so far back it won’t even matter. Denny said he was focusing on surviving the first half of the Chase and he’s done that. So now he needs to focus on the championship. NOW. Not wait two more week. Go all-for-nothing. Otherwise he’ll be too far back to do anything.
3. Kevin Harvick
Kevin’s got consistantsy and wins, but he needs to step it up. He’s got enough to stay within 100 or so of Jimmie and Denny but not enough to beat them. If he kicks it up a notch he might, but otherwise, I just don’t see it happening unless Denny and Jimmie wreck out Tally or M’sville.
4. Jeff Gordon
Yeah, right.
5. Kyle Busch
that engine failure wouldn’t have taken him out by itself, but that coupled with David Reutimann’s little payback finished him off. A finish outside the top 30 + a finish outside the top 20 = no title.
6. Tony Stewart
Of course, he’s too far back, but let’s look at the reason he’s that far: INCONSISTENTCY. One week he’s cruising to Victory Lane, the next week he’s running outside the top 20. It’s a joke.
7. Carl Edwards
Distributor probs took him out. Even without those issues, he wouldn’t have been able to. He drives a Ford. Other than that, he has very good performance, very consistent, good points finish in order.
8. Greg Biffle
He drives a Ford…he’s had inconsistent results, some of that can be attributed to bad luck – like the pit stops at Dover – but some of that he just drove like crap. He still has some good finishes, like the win at Kansas, but the bad ones….
9. Kurt Busch
It’s like he forgot how to drive as soon as the Chase started…if he can turn it around he can get a top 5 in points possibly, but he needs to turn it around NOW.
10. Jeff Burton
He was my dark horse pick for the Chase and although he did get a runner-up finish at Dover, he’s just had poor finishes, poor luck, whatever. Very consistent during the regular season, but he forgot how to drive in the Chase.
Chase Contenders: Breakdown
As the Chase nears, it’s driving me crazy thinking about who’s going to win the title. Here’s my breakdown of each locked-in Chase driver, the good and the bad, and who can get it done.
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1. Kevin Harvick
Happy can definitely win this. Obviously, he’s been the best all season – how else could he get the points lead? – and very few breaks in his consistency. I’ve seen only 2 mechanical failures, so they seen to be in good condition there. They have fast cars, week in and week out, and they can win with them. The 29 team will definitely be in there.
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2. Jeff Gordon
I know Jeff’s 2nd in points, but I don’t see him as a contender. Earlier in the season, up until about halfway through the summer stretch, he was consistently top 5. He contended for wins, always had them snatched away but always contended. He was very consistent and a serious threat. But lately he’s just kinda dropped off the scene. He hasn’t contended for wins in the past few weeks. Some of that’s bad luck. You could pass other stuff off as bad handling cars, but if the team can’t get the car good in the shop, I don’t know if they will be as strong of a contender. I remember him saying about Denny Hamlin, that the #11 team peaked too soon. That they should’ve saved that for the Chase. Well, I think Jeff might’ve used up everything before the Chase as well.
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3. Kyle Busch
Kyle deffinitely has the talent and the ability to win this title. He can wheel any type of race car on any type of track. But if he wants to be championship material, he needs to grow up. I have never seen someone like Kyle, regardless of talent, win the big picture. The Championship. Race wins, yes, overall, no. He just needs to grow up before he can win the championship. A champion needs to be consistent in every area, not get into fueds with 90% of the drivers, be very good overall. Kyle’s good at winning races, but he tends to mix it up with other guys. He tends to be not-so-pleasent over the radio. He just needs to work on his overall program, before he can win it. Talent alone won him the Nationwide title, but I think it’ll be a little tougher in the Cup.
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4. Tony Stewart
Can’t count Tony out, not by a long shot. He struggled early but he’s putting together his program at the right time. He’s got some bonus points as well as awesome momentum going into Richmond and the Chase. He’s a 2-time NASCAR champ, the ’97 IRL champ, and he’s won the USAC triple crown. You can never count someone like that out, ‘specially when they have momentum and wins and a good points position.
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5. Carl Edwards
Until Carl can put together a good win, not just a win but a dominant win, he’s not going to win a championship. A champ needs to be able to put it together in the short run – the race – and the long run – the title. Until Carl can get those short runs, the long run is a long shot.
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6. Jeff Burton
Jeff may not have won a race since 2008 but I believe that he can win this thing through consistency. I know what I said about Carl, but Jeff and Carl are 2 different drivers. Jeff isn’t a contender in the short runs, but over the long run he always seems to be there. Jeff probably won’t win a title, but contending is something that probably will happen.
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7. Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie is showing uncharacteristic weakness in these final races leading to the Chase. His strong run at Atlanta showed that there’s nothing wrong with the way the 48 is running – when they’re running. Wrecks seem to have plauged Jimmie, coupled with a few unexplained bad runs, make me think that although you can’t count him out, you can’t engrave the trophy either. Not at this point.
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8. Kurt Busch
I think Kurt can definitely pull this off. Nights like Atlanta are what make a champion – struggle throughout the race and pull a top 10 out of the mess. Kurt’s done it before. Jimmie Johnson was very good in the regular season but Kurt pulled out incredible consistencey during the Chase. He may very well win this thing for all I know.
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9. Matt Kenseth
He’s almost a joke, the way he’s been running. Consistently in the top 20, yes, but top 10? There’s no way Matt’s winning this thing. Over the past few years, he’s struggled. Unless an amazing turnaround can happen during the Chase, it’s not happening for the #17.
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10. Denny Hamlin
Their performance is very good, but all these mechanical issues have made me think that the 11 team will not win the title, regardless of their place on my favorites list. Denny can pull it off. But the cars can’t. Drive shafts, engines, brake fans, tire blowers, driver A/C, all these problems. If it wasn’t for those 3 DNF’s last year in the Chase Denny would’ve been the 2009 champion – or very close to it. 2 engine failures and the wreck and Fontana took him out. If they have anywhere near the amount of mechanical issues I’m used to seeing, it’s not happening.
Is This Really Better?
Casey Mears has been released from the Red Bull Racing Team, due to poor performance / wrecking his teammate.
I have mixed feelings – though, I will say I’m mostly happy. I had started to like & respect Casey, but Scott Speed is my 3rd favorite driver after several shake-ups in my favorites this year. I was so mad at Casey. Not like, say, my anger at Kevin Harvick for wrecking Joey Logano, or my anger at Kyle Busch for threatning to kill Denny Hamlin, but I was pretty ticked. Escpecially considering that it’s a position out of the top 20, there’s a ton of time left in the race, and they’re teammates- though that hasn’t seemed to say much this season – Jamie Mac/Juan Pablo, Original 4-Time/New 4-time, Shrubby/Denny, etc.
So, Mattias Ekstrom (a cute rookie Swede!!! Thank you SO MUCH Red Bull!!) is driving the #83 this week – though this had already been set up before Casey’s firing – and Reed Sorenson will be driving for at least 3 races this year, possibly more. He’s scheduled for three races right now.
But, what I’m trying to say is, is this really a better decision than Casey? I mean, Reed isn’t exacatly Jimmie Johnson. Like Casey, he hasn’t performed too well in the chances he’s had. But, then again, his opportunities haven’t been as good as Casey’s – Mears has driven for Ganassi, Childress, and Hendrick, to name a few.
Personally, I like Reed. Like, he’s cute and I’m a crazy teenage girl, is it possible for me NOT to like him? And various other reasons, of course – I may be a crazy teenage fangirl, but I do also base opinions on performance / personality / etc. I’m glad to see him get a ride, other than the start-and-parking Braun Racing #32.
But Reed hasn’t always had top performances. Out of 145 starts, he has 0 wins, 5 top 5’s, and 14 top 10’s, and an average finish of 25.2. For Casey, it’s 252 starts, 1 win, 12 top 5’s, 46 top 10’s, and an average finish of 21.7. Of course, Casey’s had longer to accumulate top 10’s and top 5’s, and Reed’s average finish has been ruined by start-and-parking for Braun Racing’s #32.
So, all-in-all, I think that Reed isn’t exactly better than Casey, but he ain’t exactly worse, either. It’s neither good nor bad. Oh wait – hell yeah it’s good, but that’s only ’cause I like Reed. 🙂
In my personal opinion – which is what you’re here for right? – if Reed doesn’t impress enough to land the ride full-time ’till Brian Vickers’s return, we should put a young-gun rookie in there. Maybe a development driver? Or a Nationwide driver, like, maybe Landon Cassil, or Kelly Bires, or Brian Ickler? (I only said Ickler because that would mean he’d stop stealing Colin Braun’s ride.) Drivers who you’d have to go out on a limb with, but still. Didn’t Jeff Gordon go out on a limb by convincing Hendrick and Lowe’s to put Jimmie Johnson in a ride? And look how that turned out. 4 consecutive championships, 50 wins, and one of, if not the, greatest NASCAR Cup drivers ever. (I still say he’s a jerk though.) Or maybe we could try Justin Allgaier, Little Gator’s stuff in a Cup ride – look how well he’s doing in the Nationwide. Or maybe Colin Braun. (I just had to add him.) OK, so he’s done more wrecking than racing, but he’s pulled off 2 consecutive top 10’s. Or, maybe, Steve Wallace? Even with a broken foot? Or, truck series. Austin Dillon? Look how well he’s doing in his rookie year. 2 poles, 11th in points, 2 top 5’s, 4 top 10’s. Aric Almirola, maybe? I know he blew the last chance he had, but still, isn’t he a top Truck driver right now? Or Ricky Carmichael, the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), the greatest motorcycle racer ever? He’s having a pretty good season here in the trucks. Or James Buescher? He did fantastic in the Nationwide ride (till he got fired) and is doing pretty hot in the Trucks. There are so many choices…
I’m listing all these choices for replacing a driver that I like. Imagine what would happen if I was a Sorenson hater.
Spoiler Spoiling Jimmie’s Title Hopes? Sorry.
I’m tired of hearing about how the spoiler is throwing Jimmie Johnson off, because he hasn’t won with the spoiler yet. But the spoiler ISN’T throwing off Jimmie.
Look at how he ran at Dover. Dominated and got caught with a speeding penalty. If he hadn’t beat himself, he would’ve won. It’s a human mistake and stuff like that happens. If it had been the wing, the exact same thing would’ve happened.
Look at Pocono. He started in the back and worked his way up to the front and pulled off a decent finish of fifth (a position that Joey Logano should’ve gotten…) The same thing would’ve happened with the wing.
Jimmie’s having a little bad luck, and everyone immediately looks for something to blame it on, and they find the spoiler. They all point out none of the Hendrick boys have won with it this year – then again, other then Jimmie Johnson, none of them won with the wing this year either.
What if it’s just a little bad luck? Just that, and nothing more? If you’ll notice, Jimmie’s bad luck mostly seems to be wrong place, wrong time scenarios. Like the incident with A.J. Allmendinger. It could’ve been any of the other drivers in the field getting wrecked, and nobody would blame it on the spoiler. But because it was Jimmie Johnson, it must’ve been the spoiler because he hasn’t won with it yet this year.
But it seems kinda a normal year. Jimmie usually waits until Chase time comes to step up his performance to 100%, so it’s not a surprise he’s cooled down from that 3-for-5 at the beginning of the year. If anything is a surprise, it’s Jimmie immediately starting for wins.
What if Jimmie just wanted to get alot of wins in the beginning of the year to get that out of the way, to have bonus points for the Chase, and now that that’s accomplished he’s just focusing on getting good runs to put him in the Chase? It’s possible.
So if Jimmie IS having absolutely terrible luck, it has nothing to do with the spoiler, and this is just a normal season for thte 48.
The Supposed “2Man Race 4 The Title”
So, I’m hearing all about this supposed ‘two man race for the championship.’ It doesn’t exist. Denny vs Jimmie. What about, say, Kevin? Or Gordon? Or Chubby Shrubby? Or everyone else?
I’m kinda worried that, with all the media hype about Denny, the other drivers will start seeing Denny as the real challenge, and concentrate more on beating this kid from Virginia who thinks he’s Michael Jordan than the real threat to their championship hopes – Jimmie Johnson. Or Mrs. Knaus, if you prefer.
I’m also worried that Denny will get overconfident in himself. Start believing he’s invincible because that’s what the media’s making him out to be. Let his guard down long enough for Jimmie to slip by and steal the championship.
Jimmie Johnson – would you believe that more people voted “Stick a fork in him, he’s done” than “He can’t be stopped, engrave the trohpy” in a recent poll about Jimmie’s title hopes? So he’s DNF’d 2 of the past 3. Would someone please tell me how it’s Jimmie’s fault that some guy (AJ Allmendinger) lost his brakes and came slamming into Jimmie in an unavoidable accident? As much as I would like say Jimmie’s championship hopes are diminished, he still has a huge shot at this Cup. He’s too good to just be factored out. Y’know, how bout, after Jimmie wins #5, let’s have him and Chad switch places and see how good they really are. But, of course, there is the possibility that Denny WILL secure this title and Jimmie won’t win #5. But remember how Chubby Shrubby was supposed to win 2008? And how Jimmie won anyway with Flipper being his closest competitor? And how Kyle pretty much spent the entire Chase hiding in a corner? Of course, Kyle didn’t promise to win a championship in a year or two, or promise Jimmie “I’m coming for you” and didn’t win 4 of the final 16 races the previous season, but still. It’s a similar situation.
And, there’s all the OTHER guys who’ve been strong this season. Kevin Harvick, the Talladega winner and the points leader. Chubby Shrubby, the Richmond winner and third place car. The original four-time, Jeff Gordon, the fourth place car and leader of the most laps this season. Kenser!bot’s been somewhat strong, half the time (though I don’t expect him challenging for the title. Sorry, Matt) I’m just saying Denny and Jimmie aren’t the only two guys in the hunt. Far from that.
Rantings Of A NASCAR Chick 
